Iowa still needs to win one more of the last two against Illinois and Nebraska to clinch, though they can still win the division with some other help even if they lose out.
If Iowa loses out and Nebraska wins out, the Huskers take the title unless Minnesota also wins out against Ohio State and Wisconsin.
Nebraska wins the two-way tie. Minnesota wins the three-way tie. Both of those scenarios are decided by head-to-head results.
The winner of the Illinois-Northwestern game would also likely be part of the tie in these scenarios. (Northwestern would also have to beat Purdue.)
If Iowa and Nebraska finish in a three-way tie with either Illinois or Northwestern, Nebraska wins on the head-to-head sweep.
If Iowa, Nebraska and Minnesota finish in a four-way tie with Illinois, Nebraska wins on division record. Technically, Iowa would be eliminated first on head-to-head results by being swept by the other three and then Nebraska would win the remaining three-way tie based on division record.
If Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota finish in a four-way tie with Northwestern, Minnesota wins on head-to-head over Nebraska after Iowa and Northwestern are eliminated on the four-way head-to-head results.
That covers all of the scenarios where both Nebraska and Iowa have a share of the title.
There are paths to victory for every team except Purdue if Iowa loses out, even for Iowa itself. For anyone else except Minnesota, their winning scenario involves Nebraska losing at Wisconsin as well.
Otherwise, Iowa can be tied by Wisconsin or Minnesota, but not both and possibly neither (if Wisconsin loses to Minnesota who loses to Ohio State). Similarly, Iowa can be tied by Illinois or Northwestern, but not both and possibly neither (if Illinois loses to Northwestern who loses to Purdue). That’s nine combinations, one of which is Iowa still winning outright at 5-4. The other eight combinations are Iowa plus:
- Wisconsin and Illinois (Wisconsin wins on division record)
- Wisconsin and Northwestern (Iowa wins on head-to-head)
- Wisconsin (Iowa wins on head-to-head)
- Minnesota and Illinois (Illinois wins head-to-head)
- Minnesota and Northwestern (Northwestern wins on division record)
- Minnesota (Minnesota wins on head-to-head)
- Illinois (Illinois wins on head-to-head)
- Northwestern (Iowa wins on head-to-head)
Northwestern is the longest shot, needing seven games to go right for them:
- Northwestern beats Purdue
- Northwestern beats Illinois
- Illinois beats Iowa
- Nebraska beats Iowa
- Wisconsin beats Nebraska
- Minnesota beats Ohio State
- Minnesota beats Wisconsin
Of course, everyone else except Iowa needs a minimum of four games to go right for them.